A raw subscriptions()->exists() check treated a leftover incomplete /
incomplete_expired row — which Cashier persists when a first payment
fails or a 3DS challenge is abandoned — as a prior subscription, so a
genuinely new customer retrying after a failed first attempt lost the
$1 coupon and was charged full price. Exclude those never-started
statuses so only a subscription that actually started (active, canceled,
etc.) marks the account as a returning customer.
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